The whales, those bitcoin holders that manage between 1,000 BTC and 10,000 BTC, who had started selling when the price exceeded $ 30,000, have changed their strategy and have begun to accumulate. This is one of the conclusions of the latest Ecoinometrics report, “On-chain Trends”, published this Monday, July 12.
The report studied the behavior, since November 2020, of seven segments of holders, from those with less than 1 BTC, to the whales.
Start with addresses with less than 1 BTC, 1 to 10 BTC, 10 to 100 BTC, 100 to 1,000 BTC, and 1,000 BTC to 10,000 BTC.
“The post halving bull market really started in October, when the price started to take off from the $ 10,000 price zone,” says Ecoinometrics.
The document highlights that there is a noticeable difference between the behavior of BTC in the hands of so-called fish (range less than 1 BTC) and whales.
The following graph represents the change in BTC held by the five mentioned segments, since October 2020. On the left side, the groups of less than 1 BTC, from 1 to 10 BTC, and from 10 to 100 BTC. On the right side, the large holders, from 100 to 1,000 BTC, and the whales (1,000 BTC to 10,000 BTC).
Changes in the supply of bitcoin in five segments of holders. Source: Ecoinometrics.
It is noted in the graph that the addresses of less than 1 BTC accumulated BTC until the fall of mid-April, while the next two groups, between 1 BTC and 100 BTC, have been decreasing since the beginning of the year.
The group that has acquired bitcoin with the greatest determination is that of addresses between 100 BTC and 1,000 BTC, especially in the period in which the price went from USD 30,000 to USD 60,000. In the last two months these holders have held their funds in BTC, according to the graph.
The BTC of the addresses controlled by the whales began to decrease in February, most likely due to profit taking. However, after the price of BTC returned close to USD 30,000, a restart of accumulation in this segment of large holders is noted, the report highlights. It is found that profit-taking has already ended in the five groups analyzed.
Growth patterns in bitcoin cycles
In several studies, Ecoinometrics has compared the growth patterns of the bitcoin price after each halving. In mid-May, the analytical firm supported the thesis, commented on by CriptoNoticias, that the price of bitcoin was going to remain between the growth curves after the first and second halving. At the time, the price of BTC was still above $ 50,000 and heading for a new all-time high.
The recent correction in the price of BTC takes it below the trajectory of the first two halvings. Source: Ecoinometrics.
After subsequent selling pressure led to the bitcoin price reversal in mid-April, the price trajectory shifted below the growth band of the first two halvings.
To find the reasons for the April correction, one would have to go to the beginning of the year, the report says. Through a more detailed analysis of the behavior of the whales, Ecoinometrics affirms that when the price began to progress rapidly towards USD 40,000 those large holders would have considered that the bitcoin rally was of a significant magnitude and occurred very quickly. This would have prompted the whales to start selling BTC, according to the report.
Therefore, it is possible that some whales felt that [el repunte] it was too fast and that caused some selling pressure that led to the hedging process at $ 64,000. When FUD was added to the situation, the minnows also stopped accumulating, resulting in the -55% correction we are in now.
The picture has changed, however, since the price of BTC stabilized in the $ 30,000 range, the study says. “Whales and small fish have started to accumulate again, while other categories have become neutral.”
These first evidences of a restart of accumulation, as posited in the study, would make possible a return to the growth of the price of BTC. In Glassnode’s most recent bitcoin market analysis, discussed last Thursday by CryptoNews, It is claimed that there is a net outgoing flow from exchanges of 2,000 BTC daily, supported by on-chain data. This finding is consistent with the conclusions of the Ecoinometrics study.