The former director of epidemiology of the Ministry of Health (Minsa), Dr. Álvaro Ramírez, warned that the curve of infections and mortality in Nicaragua due to the new Covid-19 coronavirus would be unstoppable if the regime does not establish a strict quarantine to stop the increase in the cases. If the measures are not applied, the pandemic “will be lethal,” said the specialist.
Dr. Ramírez explained that in most of the countries where the pandemic has hit, the exponential curve of infected people and that of the dead have managed to decrease in a period of two to three months because the social quarantine was imposed.
In the case of Nicaragua, with the dictatorship of Daniel Ortega refusing to take drastic measures of confinement, carrying out massive tests and tracking down suspected cases, the curve will continue “unstoppably”, so the peak of the pandemic may not be three months, but six or even more.
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“The epidemic period with mortality reduction depends on the measures taken by governments to stop it. How long is the epidemic going to last in Nicaragua? It is very difficult to answer it. In countries that have already passed the curve it was approximately three months. Based on that experience, we speak that May, June and July (would be the explosion of cases and deaths) in Nicaragua, “said Ramírez.
But the curve of infestation of people and deaths would last longer because the dictatorship continues to minimize the pandemic, continues to promote activities of agglomeration of people.
“The crisis is just beginning,” said Dr. Ramírez, blaming the Ortega regime for promoting a “sanitary genocide” because it has “allowed the pandemic to circulate freely in Nicaragua.”
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Public and private hospitals would be strewn with people sick with the virus. Day and night sealed coffins leave hospitals daily with deaths from complications of respiratory symptoms related to Covid-19, being disguised as “atypical pneumonia”, “community-acquired pneumonia” or “unusual severe pneumonia” by the Ministry of Health (Minsa).
The Minsa reports only 279 positive cases of Covid-19 and 17 deceased people. These are not credible data due to the serious situation of the hospitals, which the media have managed to confirm with the scenes seen in those centers, as well as the complaints from relatives of the sick and the dead.
The Citizen Observatory, an independent association of specialists and NGOs, reported on May 20 a cumulative figure of 2,323 people affected by the virus. In one week 1,054 new positive cases were registered.
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The Citizen Observatory also recorded 465 deaths from pneumonia or Covid-19 suspects until May 20.
Epidemiologist Ramírez said that based on the rapid increase in infection among Nicaraguans, 400 deaths related to Covid-19 could begin to be reported each week, and while there are no measures of citizen confinement, the mortality will increase rapidly.
The “herd immunity” is wrong
The dictator Ortega, along with his vice president and wife, Rosario Murillo, have ruled out declaring the national quarantine saying that it would “starve the country”, so they will not stop productive activities. In this way, the regime prefers not to harm the economy anymore, which has been in recession for two years due to the socio-political crisis.
Dr. Ramírez reported that if the weather conditions do not change in the country, and it continues to rain since the winter season has entered, people are still getting sick, the Covid-19 infestation will continue unstoppable, so that “the forecasts are about 125 thousand cases. “Of which” 32,000 will require hospitalization “, and” they will have 23,000 dead at the end of the pandemic period “.
Epidemiologist Ramírez explained that the regime was wrong “because without presenting a scientific basis” it decided to apply the “herd or herd immunity” system, which is to let the virus circulate freely, seeking for the population to become infected in order to achieve immunity.
A system that was implemented in the United Kingdom where the government gave up within a few weeks due to the exploration of the number of people infected and deaths from the virus. The United Kingdom is the fourth country in the world most affected by the pandemic with more than 36,000 deaths and more than 258,000 positive cases.
The same method of “herd immunity” was implemented by Switzerland, but it has not been successful either, as it registers more than 30 thousand positives and more than 1,900 deaths. The case fatality rate (deceased vs. confirmed) is 6.2 percent, being one of the highest in Europe.
Ramírez explained that the “herd immunity” system seeks that at least sixty percent of the population catch the virus to develop immunity. But it is a method that has failed in the United Kingdom and Switzerland, and therefore the Nicaraguan specialist warned, it is also evident that it is failing.
One of the evidences that this model is wrong for the country is the hygiene and health conditions of the population, the precariousness of the Health system.
“The consequences of the herd’s immunity system will be catastrophic for Nicaragua,” warned epidemiologist Ramírez.