Italy continued today registering a high number of deceased and infected -837 people died and 2,107 were positive-, but in the Higher Institute of Health they assure that the curve has reached its flat phase and that it will last several days like this and then begin to fall .
Italy today reached 12,428 dead and 105,792 infected, but these are data that confirm that the contagion curve has reached its peak and gives hope to the country on a way out of the crisis.
In Lombardy, the most affected region, 43,208 people were infected, but the increase in infections, 1,047, was somewhat less than the previous day, while the deceased reached 7,199 with 381 more registered, also lower than the 458 the previous day.
The Health Minister of the region, Giulio Gallera, in charge of communicating the data daily, assured that these “are the confirmation of a hope”, but asked “not to lower your attention.”
“Our battle is paying off,” said Gallera, who noted above all that only 68 new hospitalizations have been registered and for the first time, no one was admitted to the intensive care unit.
ITALY ARRIVES AT THE “PLATEAU” OF THE CONTAGIADOS CURVE
The president of the Superior Institute of Health (ISS), Silvio Brusaferro, assured today that the peak of the contagion curve has been reached, although he explained that it is a “plateu” (a “plateau”), since the trend will continue, even flat, for a few days and then begin to fall.
During a press conference on the epidemiological situation in Italy, Brusaferro said that the curve will only go down “if attention is maintained” and “the measures” and that “for now it is difficult to imagine a restart of activities in a short time.”
The ISS president also admitted that the death toll may have been underestimated because those who have tested positive are counted, but that there have been many deaths from pneumonia without the test being performed.
“There have been deaths in their homes, where there is no medical report, or all those who have died in the residences. It is an estimate that we must make more precisely,” he added.
He also warned that the decisions made so far are important to avoid “the curve going up again or leading to a situation of lack of control of the epidemic.”
This trend is observed this last week in almost all of Italy and in particular in Lombardy. Nationally, in a few days it went from a daily increase of 6,500 cases to around 4,000, until yesterday it fell to 1,648 and today the trend continued.
THE CONTACTS WILL STOP IN THE MIDDLE OF MAY
Coronavirus infections in Italy will conclude only in the second or third week of May, although they will vary by region, according to a study being carried out by the Einaudi Institute of Economics and Finance (Eief), a university research center in Rome.
The institute has prepared the first projections on the date in which Italy will reach the zero quota of registered infections and that, according to the available data, may be between May 5 and 16.
But some regions, such as Veneto and Piedmont, can achieve the result already in the first fortnight of April, since the control of infections is more advanced than in other areas of the country, they explain.
The study is being conducted by Franco Peracchi, a professor at Georgetown University (United States) and the University of Tor Vergata (Rome) and will be reviewed and published every night on the Eief website after updates to data from Civil protection.
THE GOVERNMENT THINKS OF A GRADUAL OPENING, BUT FROM MAY 4
For the moment, the Minister of Health, Roberto Speranza, announced that the Government’s intention is to extend “all” the measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus, confinement and movement restrictions, “at least” until next April 12. , when Easter ends, as recommended by the scientific committee that advises the Government.
The restrictions were due to expire on April 3, although the government must approve a decree for its extension, something it is already working on.
The Executive is already thinking about how the plan will be that allows the gradual restoration of the activities suspended so far.
But, according to the Italian media, the isolation is not expected to end before May 4, as the government fears that due to the May 1 bridge, people may go back out of their homes en masse.
The virologist Fabrizio Pregliasco proposed in statements to the media “to provide a different time for the return to social life and the exit from the home to groups of elderly or more fragile people, who should protect themselves in a particular way.”