Less purchasing power for workers, which will hit consumption. The wages will drop between 5% and 10% for new hires that occur in September, with the economic reactivation, according to a report by the consulting firm Ceinsa based on the macroeconomic forecasts of the Bank of Spain. In addition, all wages will be adjusted by 5% due to unemployment, especially among managers.
Between June and August, the consultant predicts that market wages will be maintained because new hires won’t have much effect, although it foresees adjustments in sectors such as retail or tourism between 8% and 12%, more for layoffs than for salary cuts.
From second semester of 2021 lWages will recover clearly, although they will not return to pre-crisis levels until 2023.
In its study, Ceinsa also makes forecasts for the other two scenarios foreseen by the Bank of Spain, one more optimistic and the other more pessimistic.
In the most pessimistic scenario, with a fall in GDP of 13.6% and unemployment of 21.7% in 2020, the salary adjustment between June and August could be between 10% and 15% for low-skilled jobs, while starting in September without economic activity still normalized, the remuneration offered for new hires would drop between 10% and 20%, depending on the positions.
In general, total salaries will be adjusted, taking into account that there will be few hiring, between 8% and 13% for managerial positions and between 2% and 4% in non-managerial positions.
For forecasts more optimistic, with a fall in GDP of 6.6% in 2020 and an unemployment rate of 18.3%, Ceinsa forecasts a decrease in remuneration in low-skilled jobs in the tourism sector between 3% and 5 between June and August %.
Starting in September, the remuneration offered for new hires would experience a decrease of between 3% and 5%.